世界粮食贸易格局及趋势研究

通过对近20年世界粮食的生产、消费与贸易情况进行分析,本研究认为,世界粮价波动带有明显的周期性质,供需基本面的变化仍然是本轮国际粮价上涨的根本原因。从短期看,未来两三年全球粮食供求状况将有所改善,国际粮价维持在相对不高的水平上。对中长期的预测为,粮食需求的增长速度仍将快过产量及供给的增长速度,全球粮食供求将长期趋紧。

Study on Trade Structure and Tendency in World Grain Market

Base on the data of world grain production,consumption and trade in the past twenty years,this paper finds that fluctuation of world grain price has the apparent cyclical nature.The basic reason that grain price climb at a high level this time is the changes of situation of supply and demand in world grain market.In the following two or three years,the situation of grain supply and demand will be improved,the grain price will remain at relatively low level.In the middle and long term,the growth rate of dema...