| G7与BRIC经济实力变迁的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴庆军. G7与BRIC经济实力变迁的预测[J]. 国际金融研究, 2009, 0(9) |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴庆军 |
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| 作者单位： | 曲阜师范大学运筹与管理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(项目编号:10671108)赞助 |
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| 摘 要： | G7是世界上最发达的七个国家而BRIC是世界上最有发展潜力的四个大国,这两类国家对当今世界和未来世界影响举足轻重,对它们进行对比分析具有重要的现实意义和历史意义。传统的对比及预测方法建立在绝对数基础之上,受经济周期、通货膨胀及汇率的影响,预测误差较大。本文采取独特视角以相对数为基础建立统计模型,对比分析并预测G7和BRIC相对实力及相对人民生活水平的变迁,这样不仅消除了经济周期、通货膨胀和汇率因素的影响,而且统计检验结果显示模型具有较高的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | G7 BRIC 相对实力 预测 |
The Prediction of Changes in Economic Strength of G7 and BRIC |
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| Wu Qingjun. The Prediction of Changes in Economic Strength of G7 and BRIC[J]. Studies of International Finance, 2009, 0(9) |
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| Authors: | Wu Qingjun |
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| Abstract: | G7 refers to the seven most developed countries and BRIC represents the four developing countries with the greatest potential in the world. These two groups are playing a significant role in the world today and in the future. Therefore, comparative analysis on the two types of countries has considerable practical and historical significance. The traditionally comparative and predictive methods are based on the absolute figures; however, big prediction error may result due to the impact of economic cycles, i... |
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| Keywords: | G7 BRIC Relative Strength Prediction |
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