国内外棉花市场价格的动态关系分析——基于VECM模型

本文运用协整检验、误差修正模型及脉冲响应函数等方法,分析了我国加入世贸组织后国内棉花价格与国际棉花价格之间的动态关系。结果表明,国内棉价与国际棉价具有长期均衡关系,其中国际棉价波动对国内棉价有较强的冲击,对国内市场起引导作用;而国内棉价波动对国际市场影响较小,并在此基础上提出了政策建议。

Analyzing Dynamic Relationship between Domestic and International Cotton Market Price:Based on VECM Model

The purpose of this paper is to analysis the dynamic relationship between the domestic cotton prices and the international cotton market prices after China entering into WTO by cointegration test, error correction model and impulse response function. The results show that the domestic cotton price and the international cotton price have a long-run equilibrium relationship, in which the international cotton price fluctuations have a stronger impact on the domestic cotton price, and guide the domestic market,...