虚拟经济膨胀视角下的汇率短期波动研究——对Dornbusch超调模型的扩展

目前,世界经济体系的一个重要且显著的特征表现为虚拟经济尤其是衍生金融交易极度膨胀,这导致经济系统异常敏感和脆弱。因此,从虚拟经济膨胀角度看汇率波动,将使对汇率短期波动的研究有了新视角。本文在传统的Dornbusch汇率超调模型的基础上,加入虚拟经济膨胀程度的考量,通过对货币需求函数等模型变量的修正,得出虚拟经济的规模和膨胀程度是汇率超调的重要原因的结论。这为一国货币对外币值的稳定性或波动性提供了新的解释。

An Analysis on Volatility of Exchange Rate with a Perspective of Virtual Economy

At present,an important and significant characteristic of the world economy is rapid expansion of virtual economy, especially derivatives,which makes the economic system extraordinarily sensitive and vulnerable.As a result,seeing from fluctuations of virtual economy,new insights on exchange rate fluctuations emerge On the basis of Dornbusch model of exchange rate overshooting,this paper considers the scale of virtual economy,corrects the money demand function with new variables.New model gets some conclusio...