美国经济衰退的国际相关性实证研究

本文采用事件窗口分析方法,研究美国近7次经济衰退与主要发达国家、亚洲四小龙的关系。发现美国经济衰退的国际相关性是动态变化的,其中1973年、1980年和2001年是国际相关性最高的3次衰退;新一轮经济周期当中东亚四小龙金融变量与美国高度相关,超过了实体经济变量与美国的相关性。此外,本文还分析了美国与其他国家或地区经济衰退的领先、滞后关系。

An Empirical Study on International Synchronization of U.S.Economic Recessions

This paper studies the relations of recessions between U.S.,major advanced economies and East Asia Newly Industrial Countries(NICs).The synchronization of U.S.recessions with other countries was time varying.The 1973,1980 and 2001 recessions were the most synchronized until now.The financial sectors of NICs has become more and more closely related with that of U.S.Most of the advanced countries lagged behind the U.S.economic fluctuation,however,some variables of NICs led before those of U.S.