东盟服务贸易现状和影响因素的分析——基于1980-2007年的样本

根据1980-2007年的样本数据分析了东盟及其成员国服务贸易总额、增长速度、贸易结构等特点,指出东盟服务贸易发展迅速,部分国家新兴服务贸易贡献力度大,但是总体上仍以传统服务贸易为主,并对影响东盟服务贸易发展的因素做了实证分析,指出货物贸易规模、FDI规模和服务业发展水平对其均有显著的正向影响,其中FDI规模对东盟的服务贸易拉动作用最大,并在此基础上提出了对我国服务贸易发展的启示和借鉴。

Influencing Factors and Status Quo of Southeast Asian Trade in Services Based on Data of 1988-2007

Base on the data of 1980-2007, this paper examines the total trade amount, growth rate and structure of trade. One main result is that traditional trade in services is the main part, although new type services trade developed fast in some countries. The paper also analyzes the influencing factors by using statistical analysis. It finds the scale of trade in goods, FDI and the development level of services trade have positive effects on the development of ASEAN’s services trade.