新兴经济体能拯救全球经济危机吗——基于进口贸易视角的评估

文章通过考察新兴经济体各类商品在世界的进口地位、进口来源以及各经济体进口结构的变化,探究新兴经济体能否在日后担当起维护世界市场、促进全球贸易格局平衡的重任。从1990年到2007年,新兴经济体进口占世界总进口的份额持续攀升,已经成为世界贸易体系中不可忽视的产品销售市场,这些经济体的进口在很大程度上是由发展制造业并进行出口驱动的。新兴经济体进口最终产品占世界总进口的份额发生了较大幅度的上升,然而该份额仍然较小,新兴经济体的最终产品市场,特别是消费品市场仍有待开发。因此,在突如其来的经济危机降临之际,这些经济体在短期内尚无法担当起拯救危机的重任,但发达国家通过种种努力可以在未来进一步开拓新兴经济体市场。

Can Emerging Economies Retrieve Global Economic Crisis: an Evaluation Based on Import

From 1990 to 2007, the share of emerging economies’ import in the world has increased persistently, which was driven by their export-oriented strategy. The import share of final goods, especially consumption goods of emerging economies is fairly small. As a result, emerging economies can’t take on the task of retrieving global crisis in the short run. However, emerging economies’ markets has huge potential and developed countries can exploit these markets deeply in the future.