FDI溢出对高经济产出区的增长影响

运用空间Durbin模型和极大似然估计技术，以1991-2012年大长三角25城市和大珠三角21城市面板数据，对比检验了FDI溢出与城市生产率间的基本关系。发现：FDI对本地城市增长正效应显著存在并随时间增强，其空间溢出显著但在二地区行为相反；空间依赖在城市生产率增长中有增强趋势，但在二地区方向相异；FDI提高了二地区城市增长的条件收敛速度；空间溢出在二地区的核心和外围都存在但表现各异并有不同演变。上述结论对于二地区引进FDI和促进城市发展具有重要政策含义。

Spillovers of FDI and Impact on Growth in High Economic Output Regions

Using panel data covering 25 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and 21 cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) over the 1991-2012 period, the paper applies spatial Durbin model with ML estimation techniques to examine the underlying relationship between the productivity of the host cities and FDI spillovers. The main findings are as follows. First, significant positive impacts of FDI on the local city's growth exist and increase over time, while spatial spillovers of FDI on growth present significantly but behave oppositely in YRD and PRD. Second, spatial interaction plays an important and non-negligible role in urban productivity growth; however, in the long term, YRD and PRD have significant but opposite spatial effects of growth. Third, inclusion of FDI raises the speed of conditional convergence of economic growth in YRD and PRD (for the case of single-regime). Fourth, positively spatial spillover of growth occurs in both regimes of YRD, while negatively spatial spillover for the case of PRD. The results here suggest important policy implications for the two regions to attract FDI and promote urban development. Key Words: FDI, spillovers, spatial Durbin model, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta