Estimating diffusion and price elasticity with application to telecommunications |
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Authors: | Christos Michalakelis Georgia Dede Dimitris Varoutas Thomas Sphicopoulos |
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Institution: | 1.Department of Informatics and Telecommunications,National and Kapodistrian University of Athens,Ilisia,Greece;2.Department of Informatics and Telematics,Harokopio University of Athens,Kallithea,Greece |
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Abstract: | This paper aims to propose a new framework for estimating and forecasting diffusion of high technology products, along with
the construction of a price index. Into that context, the “diffusion–price” model is presented, as an innovative concept providing
a long term estimation of both price and diffusion elasticity. This corresponds to the bidirectional estimation of the mutual
influence of the product’s price over its expected diffusion and vice versa. The discrete parts of the methodology are the
use of a diffusion model for the initial estimation of diffusion, the construction of a price index function for estimating
the pricing mechanism and, finally, the construction of the “diffusion–price” model for estimating and adjusting the diffusion
level and price quantities. The case studies examined, whose solution was based on genetic algorithms, revealed remarkable
results which can be used for business strategies development, as the pricing policy is able to make diffusion diverge substantially
from the initial estimates. The case studies considered correspond to the ADSL technology diffusion in the wider European
area. |
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