中美可比国民储蓄率的真实差距及演变趋势分析

在改进中美可比储蓄率核算方法的基础上,基于最新可得的中美可比固定资产折旧等数据,计算了2000—2017年中美可比国民总储蓄率、净储蓄率和中美可比分部门储蓄率。结果发现,中美可比储蓄率差距近年来呈下降趋势,而且远低于现有研究的计算结果。在考虑固定资产折旧的情况下,中美净储蓄率差距已下降至较低水平。在人口老龄化的长期趋势下,两国储蓄率趋同的趋势很可能是持续性的。基于此,认为我国经济的高质量发展要逐渐从依赖高储蓄率和高投资率向投资驱动和消费拉动转换。

An Analysis of the Real Gap and Evolution Trend of Comparable National Savings Rate Between China and the US

Based on the improved method,this paper calculates the China-U.S.comparable gross national savings rate,net saving rate and sector savings rate from 2000-2007.The results show that the gap berween the comparable savings rate of China and U.S.is not only narrowing year by year,but far lower than the calculation results of the existing studies as well.Furthermore,considering the consumption of fixed assets,the gap between the net savings rate of China and U.S.has dropped to less than 10%in recent years.The convergence of savings rates between the two countries is likely to be sustained by the long-term trend of ageing populations.