中国制造业与房地产业协调发展的测度与判断

产业间的良性互动是经济高质量发展的一个重要体现。本文基于2004-2016年我国各省份29个细分制造业行业与房地产业的数据,采用耦合评价模型,对我国制造业与房地产业协调发展的变化情况进行了测度。同时,本文尝试从内在机制上找出两产业的最佳耦合度,并实证分析了两产业耦合协调度对全要素生产率和经济增长率的影响。进一步,本文运用渐进式双重差分法分析了房地产限购政策这一外部冲击对两产业耦合度的影响。测度结果表明,两产业的互动程度不断增强,由2004年的失调发展上升到2016年的良好协调发展;中西部地区制造业与房地产业的耦合协调度略高于东部地区;东中西部地区房地产业的总体发展水平均于2012年前后超过制造业。计量结果显示,东部地区制造业与房地产业协调发展的过程中会产生一些负面的经济影响,这能从东部地区过热的房地产市场中找到原因;对于房地产过度发展地区而言,限购政策改善了地区内制造业与房地产业的耦合度。

Measuring and Analyzing Coordinated Development between the Manufacturing Industry and the Real Estate Industry in China

Currently, the high-end development of China's manufacturing industry has become a high priority for the country. The development of the manufacturing industry requires efficient cooperation between the producer services industry and the life services industry. Overall, benign coupling and coordination have been achieved between the producer services industry and the manufacturing industry in China. As the real estate industry is an important contributor to the life services industry, the degree of coupling coordination between the real estate industry and the manufacturing industry will directly affect the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry. The average sale price of commercial housing in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China increased substantially from 2004 to 2016. In the context of the rapid heating of China's real estate market, it is important to judge whether the country's manufacturing industry and real estate industry have achieved coordinated development. This article measures and analyzes the coordinated development of these two industries and thus provides an important reference for formulating policies to promote benign interactions between the two industries.We manually collect data on 29 subdivided manufacturing industries and the real estate industry in various provinces of China from 2004 to 2016 and measure the degree of coupling coordination between the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry using a coupling coordination degree model. Meanwhile, using the input-output table, we measure and compare the overall driving effects of the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry on each other, identify the best degree of coupling between the two industries from the perspective of the internal mechanism, and use the panel threshold regression method to calculate the value range of the best degree of coupling coordination between the two industries. Furthermore, we examine the impact of the coordinated development of the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry on total factor productivity (TFP) and the economic growth rate through empirical testing. Additionally, considering that during the development of China's real estate industry, China has issued a series of real estate control policies, we use a progressive difference-in-differences (DID) method to analyze the impact of external shocks on the degree of coupling between the two industries.We obtain five main results. First, the interaction between the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry changed from uncoordinated development in 2004 to coordinated development in 2016. Second, the coordination degree between the two industries in Central and Western China is slightly higher than that in Eastern China. Third, around 2012, the overall development level of the real estate industry exceeded that of the manufacturing industry in Eastern, Central, and Western China. Fourth, in Eastern China, there is a significantly negative relationship between economic performance and the coordination degree between the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry due to the overheated real estate market in this region. Finally, the purchase restriction policy has improved the degree of coupling between the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry. These findings have the following three policy implications: (1) it is necessary to fully consider the driving effects of the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry on each other when formulating industrial policies; (2) it is necessary to strengthen market supervision and create a favorable environment for the healthy development of the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry; and (3) the implementation of purchase restriction policies cannot follow a one-size-fits-all approach as this decreases the positive economic effects of the coordinated development of the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry.This article makes four contributions to the literature. First, studies often focus on the impact of real estate prices on the manufacturing industry but rarely investigate the coordinated development of the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry, as this article does. Second, this article clarifies the interaction mechanism between the manufacturing industry and the real estate industry. Third, this article gives the best degree of coupling between these two industries from the perspective of the internal mechanism. Fourth, we discuss the impact of the external shock of a real estate purchase restriction policy on the degree of coupling between the two industries.A possible extension for future research is to compare the coordinated development of the manufacturing and real estate industries in China and developed nations to further investigate the importance of benign interactions between industries for high-quality economic development.