人民币汇率变动的进口价格传递效应——基于贸易方式的实证研究

汇率传递是汇率变动与其经济影响的中间环节,进口价格传递弹性在很大程度上决定了汇率变动对进口的影响大小。本文利用分布滞后模型、协整、向量自回归等方法,研究了三种主要贸易方式的进口价格对人民币汇率变动的传递。结果显示,进料加工进口价格的传递弹性要大于一般贸易。在其他条件不变的情形下,人民币升值对进料加工进口的促进作用明显大于一般贸易;而来料加工装配进口受人民币升值影响比较有限,更主要受世界需求、国内劳动力成本等影响。

The Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Pass-Through into China's Import Price:An Empirical Research based on Trade Type

Exchange rate pass-through into prices (ERPT) is a very important mediate link between exchange rate and its economic effects.And the size of import effect induced by exchange rate change depends on the elasticity of import price ERPT to some degree.This paper uses Distributed Lag Model,Cointegration and VAR to research the elasticity of import price ERPT in three main trade types.The result indicates that the elasticity of import price ERPT in Imported Materials Processing (IMP) is bigger than Ordinary Trade (OT) import price.Other things being equal,RMB appreciation has a more stimulate effect on IMP import than OT import.However,RMB appreciation has little effect on Supplied Materials Processing (SMP) import,which is mainly influenced by world demand,domestic labor cost and so on.