美国贸易逆差的福利效应研究——基于OLG和R-C-K理论的实证分析

本文从促成美国贸易逆差的因素之一,即美国政府财政赤字的角度,以世代交叠模型和拉姆赛-卡斯-库普曼理论为基础,构建相应的计量模型,对美国贸易逆差的福利效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:美国政府财政赤字的确在一定程度上促成了其持续贸易逆差;持续的贸易逆差对当前和将来福利水平的提高有着积极的促进作用,并且不存在所谓的福利水平的代际转移;中国对美贸易顺差是互利双赢的贸易结果。根据上述结果,本文提出了政策启示及进一步研究的方向。

Welfare Implications of Trade Deficit of U. S.: An Empirical Analysis based on OLG and R-C-K Model

From the point of view of U.S.government financial deficit which is one of the factors contributing to trade deficit of U.S.,the paper establishes the econometric model analyzing the welfare implications of trade deficit of U.S.based on the overlapping generations model and Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model.The empirical analysis shows that government net savings contribute to trade deficit greatly,sustaining trade deficit improves its welfare in short run and in long run,and no evidence indicates that trade deficit leads to inter-generation′s welfare transmission in U.S.,the surplus of Sino-US Trade is mutually beneficial.Accordingly,the paper provides its policy implication and the direction for further study.