资产市场对居民储蓄率影响的国际比较——兼论中美储蓄率差异

本文构建了一个居民储蓄行为函数,选取13个国家1991～2007年的面板数据研究了居民储蓄率的五大决定因素——收入和经济增长、利率与价格、外部储蓄、人口结构与资本市场发展,重点考察以股票市场为代表的资产市场的作用。采用定截距固定效应模型的不同方法得出的结论是:反映资产市场发展的3个指标中,股票价格和金融业产值比率都对居民储蓄率有显著负向影响,而股市规模比率有微弱正向影响。总体上看,资产市场发展对储蓄的综合作用仍是负向的,资产市场能够通过分流储蓄和财富效应两条作用渠道降低居民储蓄率。

A Comparative Analysis on the Effect of Asset Markets on Household Savings Rates:Sino-US Savings Rates Differnces

Based on a behavioural function of the household savings rate, a panel data including thirteen countries from 1991~2007 has been chosen to penetrate the five factors′ role on determing the household savings rate, where the asset market′s role was paid more attention. The fixed effects model suggets the following conclusions that among three factors of the asset market, the stock prices and the financial sector′s share in the overall economy have exerted a negative influence on the household savings rate, while the capitalization of listed companies has only a weakly positive effect, which indicates that the development of the capital market might generally help to lower the household savings rate through the distributary channel and the wealth effect.