中美汇率之争的三个核心问题

中美汇率之争的三个核心问题是:第一,中国应该采用何种汇率制度?在这一问题上,美国政府提出了"浮动汇率制最优论"的伪命题,这一观点显然违背了经济学的常识。第二,人民币是否应该升值?这一问题的答案取决于中国贸易顺差是起因于低劳动力成本竞争优势还是起因于人民币汇率低估。如果是前者,那么美国没有理由要求人民币升值。第三,人民币升值会如何影响中美经济?本论文强调其长期影响要明显大于短期影响。就长期影响而言,人民币过度升值会缩短中国高速经济增长的可持续时间。

Three Key Issues on Sino-US RMB Disputes

There are three key issues on Sino-US RMB disputes.The first issue is whether China should choose floating exchange rate regime.The U.S.government believes that a floating regime is the best one for every nation.This paper points out that the U.S.government′s idea is a false proposition.The second issue is whether RMB should be appreciated.The answer depends on how to understand the cause of China′s trade surplus.The third issue is how the appreciation of RMB can affect the economy of China and U.S.The paper emphasizes that its long-term impact is larger than its short-term impact.In the long term,the RMB excessive appreciation would shorten the time for China to keep high economic growth rate.