东亚经济体囤积国际储备的动因——基于重商主义非合作博弈的分析

本文通过计算国际储备适度性指标指出,近20年间东亚经济体呈现出大量囤积国际储备的现象。通过分析,文章推断东亚经济体囤积国际储备的重要原因之一是在重商主义动机下的非合作博弈作用的结果。由于东亚经济体大多采取出口导向战略,如果一国囤积储备就会使其本币贬值,改善竞争力,刺激出口。这种行为会诱使其他出口导向战略的国家进行相同的竞争性储备囤积,从而形成重商主义的国际储备囤积非合作博弈,结果导致各个经济体的国际储备攀比式上升。文中通过模型及中日韩三国的案例对该推断进行了验证。

Motive for International Reserves Hoarding of East Asian Economies: Non-cooperative Game of Mercantilism

Through calculating appropriate index of international reserves (IR),the paper points out that east Asian economies have been in large IR hording over the past 20 years. It infers that one of the most important reasons for hoarding IR is the result of non-cooperative game of Mercantilism. Since most East Asian economies adopt export oriented strategy,if one of them uses hoarding IR to prove competitiveness,stimulating exports,it will induce the others to have competitive hoarding,there will arise non-cooperative game of Mercantilism leading to comparison increase of IR between economies. The paper examines the inference through a model and case of China,Japan and Korea.