中韩FTA的效应及谈判可选方案——基于GTAP模型的分析

在中国对外自贸区谈判过程中,谈判方案的设计和确定总是最为棘手的问题。本文将GTAP作为方法工具,以当前尚处于联合可行性研究阶段的中韩自贸区为例进行实际应用。总体来看,尽管中韩自贸区的达成对双方均有利,但由于利益在双方国内产业间分配不平衡,双方在自贸区部分产品进行例外安排将不可避免。本文将根据几种可能的例外安排所带来的不同贸易、产出及福利效应,最后提出中国可以选择的几种谈判方案及排序。

The Design of FTA Negotiation Strategy between China and Korea based on GTAP Simulation

During the process of China′s FTA negotiation,the negotiation strategy designing has been always the most difficult question.By using GTAP model,the paper will choose the FTA negotiation between China and Korea as an example to demonstrate how to fulfill the tactic designing.Although the both countries get benefits from the FTA,the two governments will certainly to make some exemption arrangement due to the unbalance distribution of revenue among domestic industries.This paper will set out some possible exemptions and reevaluate these scenarios with GTAP model.Based on the simulation results it will finally form the negotiation strategy for China.