国际初级产品价格对中国贸易条件的传导机制和影响效应

基于1993年1月～2009年9月的月度数据,本文采用Granger方法检验了国际初级产品价格影响中国贸易条件的传导机制;然后分析和定量研究了国际初级产品价格变动的影响效应。结果表明:(1)初级产品进口价格承前启后,是整个传导链的核心因素;(2)国际初级产品价格对中国贸易条件的长期影响和短期影响都非常显著,并且随着国际金融危机向中国经济的蔓延和渗透,这种负向影响的强度更大,持续时间更长。

Empirical Research on the Transmission Mechanism and Impact of World Primary Commodity Price on China's Terms of Trade

Based on the monthly data from Jan 1993 to Sep 2009, this paper analyzed the transmission mechanism of world primary commodity price to China′s terms of trade by Granger causality test, and then quantified the impact by error correction model. The results showed that the import price index of primary commodity played an important role in the transmission process, and the world primary commodity impacted China′s terms of trade significantly and negatively both in the long-term and short-term, and the world financial crisis strengthened this trend.