上合组织自贸区经济效应的前瞻性研究--基于GTAP模型的模拟

文章在分析中国同上海合作组织成员国贸易现状的基础上,运用GTAP模型实证研究了建立上合组织自贸区可能带来的经济影响。研究发现建立自贸区虽然在短期内可能存在一定的困难和冲突,但是符合各成员国的长远利益。具体结论如下:从短期来看,大部分成员国贸易放大效应较为明显;各成员国会扩大对比较优势产品的出口,增加对比较劣势产品的进口;各成员国贸易条件和福利水平变化不一,一些小国和落后国家贸易条件恶化,福利水平下降。从长期来看,自贸区的建立能有效拉动各成员国经济增长;随着区域内分工纵深发展,各国产业结构均出现调整。总体来说,完全自由贸易情形下的经济效应要大于设置关税减让例外情形。

A Prospective Study on Economic Effects of Shanghai Cooperation Organization FTA: Based on the Simulation of GTAP

Based on the analysis of trade status of China and SCO, this paper applies an empirical research with GTAP on economic effect of establishing FTA among the SCO. In the short run, the results show that import and export trade scales will expand in most member countries, they will export more products which have comparative advantage, in exchange for imports of products that have comparative disadvantage. The impact on terms of trade and welfare are different among members, further, large countries gain more than small ones. In the long run, the establishment of FTA will bring economic growth and industrial structure adjustment to each member. Generally speaking, economic effects of free trade are greater than that of tariff protection.