要素配置、产业发展与产业结构——基于政府主导的产业发展战略视角

文章构造了理论模型分析政府主导的发展战略通过影响资本和劳动力的配置,从而影响产业发展以及产业结构调整,并利用1984-2015年省际数据实证检验了发展战略对于产业发展以及产业结构调整的影响效应。结果发现,产业发展战略提升了各产业的资本深化程度,对于中国产业发展以及产业结构有很大的主导作用。具体来说,产业发展战略促进了各产业的发展,对第二产业发展的促进效应最大,并且产业的发展存在内部滞后效应;发展战略可以显著地促进产业结构高级化,但是对于产业结构合理化和有效产业结构存在负向作用,即不利于资本-劳动在产业中的配置以及经济增长的结构效应,同时,产业结构调整也存在明显的滞后效应。

Factor Allocation,Industry Development and Industry Structure Based on the Government-oriented Strategy of Industrial Development

The heterogeneous industry development needs the corresponding national development strategy. During the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has implemented a large number of strategies to promote industrial development. However, there is a lack of detailed theoretical model and empirical analysis on the specific mechanism and effect of government industrial development strategy affecting industrial development. In this paper, we construct a theoretical model to analyze the influence of government-led development strategy on industrial development and industrial structure adjustment by influencing the allocation of capital and labor force. Then, using the provincial data from 1984 to 2015, we use a variety of measurement methods and robustness tests to verify the impact of development strategy on industrial development and industrial structure adjustment. In the theoretical model, the promotion of the combination of capital and labor in each industry will promote the labor productivity of the industry. The "economic wedge" of government behavior can influence the combination of capital and labor in different industries through development strategy, thus affecting the development of various industries. Firstly, the empirical results show that the corollary of the positive promotion of the government development strategy (PCI) in the theoretical analysis is verified. Secondly, from the empirical results of the influence of government development strategy on the adjustment of industrial structure, it is found that the development strategy has a significant role in promoting the higher level of industrial structure. However, there is a negative effect on the rationalization of industrial structure and the level of effective industrial structure, which indicates that the flow of capital and labor input between industries is not a reasonable allocation combination, and that the increase of capital labor ratio is beneficial to the development of industry. However, it can not improve the level of factor allocation, on the contrary, it has a negative effect on the speed of economic growth. Finally, from the dynamic of industrial structure adjustment, there is obvious lag effect in industrial structure adjustment, which is a kind of sublation of early stage structure, and in the process of sublation, The optimization of structure promotes the coupling of capital and labor in industrial development. This coupling also promotes the rationalization of industrial structure, the elevation of industrial structure and the effective industrial structure. In a word, only under the premise of reasonable allocation of elements and optimization of structure, can we enhance the labor output rate of industry and promote economic growth. Judging from China's past development experience, the government has too much power to allocate resources. The Chinese government's intervention in industrial development by formulating development strategies has promoted the development of various industries, but has caused distortions in the structure of the allocation of elements. From the internal decomposition of economic growth, government intervention does not improve the level of effective industrial structure to promote economic growth, but has adverse effects. The new normal state of China's economy is facing an important structural transformation. The conclusion of this paper provides meaningful guidance for government policy.