基于KAYA 恒等式和LMDI分解法的淮安市生产用水驱动因素分析

分析了2008—2017年淮安市主要用水指标的变化特征,综合考虑了水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用、人口规模、经济水平、产业结构、用水效率6个因素对淮安市生产用水的影响,基于扩展的KAYA恒等式建立了用水驱动因素分解模型。并应用对数均值迪氏指数法对2008—2017年淮安市生产用水变化进行分解分析,以评价逐年和多年时间尺度上各类驱动因素对生产用水的相对影响程度。结果表明:2008—2017年淮安市用水总量和生产用水量总体呈下降态势,主要用水效率指标均有改善;经济水平和用水效率提升是淮安市2008—2017年生产用水变化的主要驱动因素,两者在逐年和多年时间尺度上对生产用水变化的相对贡献率分别为56.49%、-127.71%和56.63%、-126.57%。研究成果对了解淮安市用水总量及主要用水效率指标的历史发展趋势,正确理解淮安市产业结构与用水结构协调发展具有参考价值。

Analysis of driving factors of production water in Huai'an City based on KAYA Identity and LMDI Model

The paper analyzed the changes of the main water use indicators in Huai'an from 2008 to 2017，and comprehensively considered the impact of water resources endowment，water resources development and utilization，population size，economic level，industrial structure and water usage effectiveness on production water in Huai'an City. Based on the extended KAYA identity，a water-driven factor decomposition model was established. Log mean Divisia index ( LMDI) was used to decompose the water consumption changes in Huai'an City from 2008 to 2017 to evaluate the driving factors of various types of driving factors on the yearly and multi-year time scales. The results showed that the total water consumption and production water consumption in Huai'an City decreased from 2008 to 2017，and the main water efficiency indicators improved. The economic level and water efficiency improvement were the main driving factors for production water changes in Huai'an from 2008 to 2017. Economic level and improvement of water use efficiency were the main driving factors for the change of production water use in Huai'an city from 2008 to 2017，and their relative contribution rates to the change of production water use were 56. 49% ～ 127. 71% and 56. 63% ～ 126. 57%，respectively，on a yearly and multi-year time scale. The research results had a reference value for knowing the historical development trend of water consumption and main water efficiency indicators，and for understanding the coordinated development of industrial structure and water structure in Huai'an city.