我国原油进口依存度的国别差异分析——基于Armington模型的实证检验

本文引入Armington模型作为原油进口依存度的分析工具,运用面板数据等分析方法,对Armington弹性进行了估计。实证结果表明:总体上,我国原油进口依存度不高,且国别之间存在较大差异。大部分国家"高进口量高依存度,低进口量低依存度"的特征较为明显,但依然存在"高进口量低依存度"以及"低进口量高依存度"的现象。同时,部分国家的弹性估计值为负,呈现出"买涨不买落"的特点,本文认为这不仅是原油定价机制的问题,也是国际能源政治的集中体现。

The National Difference Analysis on China's Degree of Dependence on the Importing Crude Oil:Empirical Test Based on the Armington Model

This paper introduces the Armington model as the tool to analyze the degree of dependence on the importing crude oil. It estimates the Armington elasticity by using the method of panel data. The empirical results indicate that the dependence on the importing of crude oil is not high in aggregate,and there is more difference between countries. Most countries present the characteristic of"high imports -high dependence and low imports -low dependence",while some countries present"high imports -low dependence and low imports -high dependence",and others"buying when the price rises and not buying when the price drops"because of negative results of elasticity. This paper believes that it is not only the problem of price making mechanism but also the demonstration of the international politics in energy.