量化宽松Ⅱ冲击和中国的政策选择

作者阐明了美联储提出量化宽松Ⅱ(QE2)的现实背景和政策思想渊源,分析了QE2的经济后果以及中国面临的政策挑战。如果QE2引起的流动性增加主要在美国国内被消化,那么通货膨胀和资产泡沫有可能使美国重演2002-2007年的泡沫生成和破裂周期;如果QE2引起的流动性大量流向新兴市场经济体,那么后者有可能再现20世纪90年代中后期的金融动荡。而无论何种可能性发生,QE2都将导致美元贬值。面对QE2冲击,中国应该实施的政策安排包括:加快人民币名义升值、实施稳健甚至从紧的货币政策、加强资本管制、继续采取积极的财政政策、加强金融监管和积极推动国际货币体系改革等。

QE2 Shocks and China's Policy Response

This article analyzes the background and causes of the US Fed's QE2 policy as well as its economic consequences and challenges China is to face.It holds that if the liquidity increase following the QE2 can be absorbed within the US,explosive inflation and asset bubbles in the country would repeat the boom,bubble and bust cycle of the 2002-07 period;if the liquidity produced by the QE2 flows into the emerging markets,those economies would possibly suffer from financial turbulence similar to that in the latte...