| 美国经济低迷何时休? |
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| 引用本文： | 黄海洲.美国经济低迷何时休?[J].国际经济评论,2011(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄海洲 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国国际金融有限公司研究部; |
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| 摘 要： | 美国经济低迷何时休的答案主要取决于未来美国的增长速度和通胀水平。本文基于对美国经济概况、人口结构和核心竞争力分析,国际外部环境和美国在经济复苏过程中货币和财政等政策取向的评估,以及和日本失去的十年的比较,认为美国经济不会长期衰退和通缩,也难以长期低迷。简单匡算表明危机后美国可能需要三年左右时间修复银行和家庭的资产报表,恢复常态经济增长。固本靠增长,治标靠通胀。
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| 关 键 词： | 美国经济 金融危机 美日比较 核心竞争力 货币政策 财政政策 |
When Will the US Economy Resume High-Rate Growth? |
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| Huang Haizhou.When Will the US Economy Resume High-Rate Growth?[J].International Economic Review,2011(1). |
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| Authors: | Huang Haizhou |
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| Institution: | Huang Haizhou |
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| Abstract: | The answer hinges on the future growth rate and inflation of the US.This article analyses US economic structure,including its demography and core competitive advantages,and reviews its monetary and fiscal policy stances during its economic recovery and the new international situation(in contrast to what Japan faced in the 1990s).It holds that the US economy will not likely face a prolonged period of slow growth and recession like Japan did in the 1990s.A very simple calculation indicates it is likely to tak... |
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