源于比较优势的贸易所得:来自中国的证据

本文根据新古典贸易模型中的贸易所得的理论定义,对测算源于比较优势的贸易所得的基本方法及其理论基础进行了回顾和分析,在此基础上利用进出口额的现值与贸易所得的估算值之间的格兰杰逻辑关系,对中国源于比较优势的贸易所得进行了测算。本文的测算结果表明,中国源于比较优势的贸易所得的最大估算值约为GDP的5%。从比较的角度考察,这一结论的政策含义是,主要依赖劳动力资源或不可再生自然资源比较优势的贸易模式已不具备可持续发展性,建立基于动态比较优势的对外贸易战略应成为包括中国在内的发展中国家的贸易政策选择。

Trade Gains from Comparative Advantage:Evidence from China

Based on the neo-classical theory of trade,this paper makes an empirical assessment on China’ s trade gains from comparative advantage by making use of the Granger relationship between the present value of import & export volumes and gains from trade.The assessment result shows that the maxi-mum gains from trade for China is about 5% of China’s GDP,and this empiri-cal result contains such a policy implication: the trade mode based on the cheap-er labor or un-renewable natural resources is not sustainable anymore,and new trade modes based on dynamic comparative advantage should be put forward for the trade policy choice by developing countries including China.