Is Declining Productivity Inevitable? |
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Authors: | Carl-Johan Dalgaard Claus Thustrup Kreiner |
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Institution: | (1) University of Copenhagen, Denmark;(2) EPRU, and CESifo, University of Copenhagen, Denmark |
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Abstract: | Fertility has been declining on all continents for the last couple of decades and this development is expected to continue in the future. Prevailing innovation-based growth theories imply, as a consequence of scale effects from the size of population, that such demographic changes will lead to a major slowdown in productivity growth. In this paper we challenge this pessimistic view of the future. By allowing for endogenous human capital in a basic R&D driven growth model we develop a theory of scale-invariant endogenous growth according to which population growth is neither necessary nor conductive for economic growth. |
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Keywords: | endogenous growth theory scale effects |
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