The future's poor: Projecting the population eligible for federal housing assistance

Microanalytic simulation techniques are used to show that, under a reasonable set of assumptions, the real income of elderly households can be projected to grow at a rate higher than that of other population groups over the next several decades. Simulation modeling also shows that current low marriage and fertility rates and high divorce rates, if continued, will lead to a future population that is proportionately more elderly and of smaller average family size. A number of federal, state, and local assistance programs restrict eligibility to low-income households. In an application to the major federal housing assistance program, it is shown that future growth in the number of elderly households may well be offset by their relatively high income growth, leaving the proportion elderly among those eligible for assistance essentially unchanged over the next 40 years. The findings imply that future changes in the demographic composition of the U.S. population may not be reflected in the composition of the low-income population. This possibility should be considered in planning assistance programs targeted on the poor.