2003年以来中国的宏观经济形势分析

The Chinese economy has emerged from deflation and entered a new stage of economic growth in late 2002 and early 2003. The sudden pick up of the economy has led to a worsening of structural imbalance and inflation is rising. The Chinese government has to find a fine trade-off between growth and inflation. While the central bank needs to tighten its monetary policy, the government may need to use a more expansionary fiscal policy to offset the contracting effect created by the tightened monetary policy. The structural imbalance and partial overheating remind us that China‘s economic reform still has a long way to go. The Chinese government must speed up its reform process. While the long-term prospect for China‘s economic rise is promising, it may be necessary for the Chinese people to prepare themselves for a harder time ahead.