中美“宽松”货币政策、通胀预期与货币规则的探讨

2008年10月以来,中美两国均采取了不同程度的"宽松"货币政策来应对源于美国金融危机的全球经济衰退。本文的研究显示,2008年,中美两国货币供应量M1和M2增长率是相似的;2008年底到2009年8月,中国的M1和M2增长率分别为20.6%和21.4%,而美国的M1和M2增长率仅为3.36%和2.14%,中国的通胀预期是市场对"超级宽松"货币政策的合理反应。在过去的一年间,中国货币当局对美国金融危机的反应比美国的政策干预更为积极。而货币供应量的高增长孕育着价格上涨的风险,货币政策应当从被动协调美国的相机抉择转向遵循货币数量规则,抑制通胀预期,以实现宏观经济的稳定增长。

Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectation and Monetary Policy Rules

China and the United States′ monetary authorities have taken an easing monetary policy in the face of global recession since October 2008. The results suggest that the growth rates of M1 and M2 were 20.6% and 21.4% in China, while 3.36% and 2.14% in the U.S. respectively between December 2008 and August 2009. In contrast with the trend of money supply in the U.S., China′s monetary policy should be defined into the super-easing one, which has brought about the overall inflation expectation over the previous months. Clearly, oversupply of money contains the high risk of price rising in the coming years. Drawing on current money supply difference, the paper discusses the implications of the findings for the explanations of monetary policy rules both quantitative rules and discretionary policy in the long term macro-economic stability.