银行资本缓冲的逆周期行为分析——来自中国上市银行的经验证据

国际金融危机的爆发引起了人们对银行资本缓冲经济周期行为更为广泛的关注。本文构建动态面板数据模型对银行资本缓冲与经济周期及相关决定性因素的关系进行估计。研究结果表明，2002-2009年，中国上市银行资本缓冲具有逆周期行为，该特征并未因商业银行产权性质不同而存在显著差异，其主要来源于银行资本金及风险加权资产与经济周期之间显著相关性的共同作用，政府注资、上市融资等资本补充渠道是短期内提高银行资本缓冲的重要外源途径，建立市场化的长效资本金补充机制、确定适度的资本缓冲区间是后金融危机时代我国监管当局和商业银行的重点议题。

A STUDY ON COUNTERCYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF BANK CAPITAL BUFFERS——Evidence from Listed Banks in China

Lots of attention had been paid to the cyclical behavior of capital buffers in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.By using a dynamic panel data model,this paper analyzed how business cycle and the determinants affect capital buffers.The results showed that capital buffers of Chinese listed banks had countercyclical behavior from 2002 to 2009.However,the features showed no significant differences between state-owned and non-state-owned banks,which was mainly due to significant relationship between bank capital,risk-weighted assets and business cycle.The channels of capital supplement such as governmental capital injection and listing financing were important external paths to increase capital buffers in the short term.How to construct the market-oriented mechanism of long-term effective capital replenishment and determine the moderate range of capital buffers became a key issue of Chinese regulatory authorities and commercial banks in the post-financial crisis era.