中国农业现代化的一个途径： 基于人-地关系的现代小农经济模式

渐趋完成的人口转变与快速工业化、城市化进程两大趋势的结合为缓解近代以来一直制约中国农业发展的人地关系紧张局面提供了可能，从而使得中国劳均耕地（播种）面积有可能摆脱长期以来的下降趋势。通过对2006-2030年间中国人口转变和快速工业化、城市化影响下的农业劳动人口进行分析和预测，并结合耕地面积和播种面积的变化趋势，预测在2020年左右，中国劳均播种面积将大于11亩，而到2030年将进一步上升到145亩。因此，有理由认为在兼业化的农业产业结构下，这些条件已经可以确保在农业劳动力处于充分就业状态并获得相对高的农业收入的情况下，形成中国现代小农经济模式。

THE APPROACH TO CHINA AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION:BASED ON PEASANT ECONOMY

With the gradually completion of demographic transition and the combination of industrialization and urbanization process,it was possible to ease the tension of the relationship between human and land which had restricted modern agricultural development in China,and to control the long-term decline of cultivated land(sowing) area.Based on the forecast of 2006-2030 China’s demographic transition,rapid industrialization and urbanization,this paper analyzed the change tendency of the cultivated and sawing land areas and forecasted the agricultural labor force population.This paper concluded that sowing area per capita would be more than 11 acres in 2020,and it would rise further to 14.5 acres by 2030.Therefore,agricultural labor force would be in full employment status and reached a relatively high agricultural income,which gradually formed a modern peasant economy mode in China.