通货膨胀与“中等收入陷阱”： 家庭福利损失的视角

本文以经典的经济增长理论为基础，结合中等收入国家的特点，提出如下理论假设：通胀所造成的家庭福利损失会影响中等收入国家宏观经济的发展，进而推动相关国家陷入“中等收入陷阱”。而后通过FGLS、差分GMM，以及系统GMM的方法对陷入“中等收入陷阱”的典型国家进行回归分析。分析结果表明，在控制了基础设施、债务水平、技术创新以及储蓄率这些影响因素之后，通胀对上述国家人均GDP增长率均有显著的负向影响，即使是在年均通胀率只有514%的东亚国家组，通胀对人均GDP增长率的平均影响也达到了123个百分点～221个百分点，影响比重达到了27%～48%。所以，我们应该加强对通胀的调控，以确保我国经济能够持续健康地发展。

INFLATION AND "MIDDLE INCOME TRAP": PERSPECTIVE OF FAMILY WELFARE LOSS

Based on classical economic growth theories,combined with the characteristics of middle-income countries,the following theoretical assumptions were proposed in this paper: in middle-income countries,inflation caused by the loss of family benefits would seriously affect the macro-economic development and thus promoted the countries falling into "middle income trap".This paper used FGLS,difference GMM,and system GMM methods to analyze the panel data of four groups of typical "middle income trap" suffered countries.The results showed that: after controlling the factors such as infrastructure,debt level,technological innovation and savings rates,inflation had a significant negative impact on per capita GDP growth at all four groups of countries.Even for the East Asian group whose average annual inflation rate was only 5.14 %,the impact of inflation on per capita GDP growth also reached 1.23~2.21 percentage points,and the gravity of impact reached 27%~48%.Therefore,Chinese economy would develop sustainably and healthily by strengthening the control of inflation.