Consequences of increasing scarcity on affluent countries

A theory of continuous structural changes in countries and a theory of discontinuous structural changes are used to predict the consequences of increasing scarcity on countries with some affluence. The prognosis is disheartening. According to the theory of continuous change, increasing scarcity will directly or indirectly increase the inequality, centralization, disintegration, disturbances, repression, and both national and international conflict and will directly or indirectly decrease socioeconomic development, legitimacy, and democracy. These changes will be unpopular and create pressures for discontinuous change to prevent them. Furthermore, increasing scarcity will increase the desire for structural change and weaken the regime's capacity to manage the situation. Thus the pressure for structural change will be strong. Scarcity also interferes with the peaceful restructuring of democracies in their efforts to cope with the crisis. When these theories are used in predicting the future of modern countries under conditions of prolonged scarcity, they suggest that elitist democracies and elitist nondemocracies are likely to be restructured into egalitarian nondemocracies. Egalitarian democracies will survive as such if they are blessed with exceptional leadership. Otherwise they also might be restructured in the direction of egalitarian nondemocracy.