对我国货币政策内部时滞的实证研究

基于前瞻性货币政策理论,运用VAR模型和方差分解技术对1998年1月~2009年9月间我国货币政策的内部时滞进行实证研究。在1998年1月~2009年9月间我国货币政策存在一定程度的内部时滞。消费者信心指数和企业家信心指数与前瞻性货币政策存在长期稳定的因果关系。因此,货币当局实行前瞻性货币政策时短期政策应盯住企业家信心指数,中长期政策应盯住消费者信心指数。

An Empirical Study on Inside Lag of China's Monetary Policy

Based on forward-looking monetary policy,an empirical study on inside lag of China's monetary policy from January of 1998 to September of 2009 is conducted by using VAR models and variance decomposition techniques.It is showed that there is a certain degree of inside lag in this period.There is a long-term stable causal relationship between confidence index of consumers and businesses and forward-looking monetary policy.Therefore,short-term policy should focus on the consumer confidence index,while long-ter...