Introduction: How to Deal with Uncertainty in Population Forecasting? |
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| Authors: | Wolfgang Lutz Joshua R Goldstein |
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| Institution: | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail:;Princeton University, Wallace Hall, Princeton, NJ, USA. E-mail: |
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| Abstract: | Demographers can no more be held responsible for inaccuracy in forecasting population 20 years ahead than geologists, meteorologists, or economists when they fail to announce earthquakes, cold winters, or depressions 20 years ahead. What we can be held responsible for is warning one another and our public what the error of our estimates is likely to be.–Nathan Keyfitz (1981) |
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