Uncertain tax rules and futures hedging

This paper considers the optimal futures hedging decision under uncertain tax treatment. If the Corn Products (CP) rule applies, gains or losses from futures trading can offset business gains or losses. However, under the Arkansas Best (AB) doctrine, offsetting is not allowed. We show that the risk neutral firm will not trade futures contracts if the probability the CP rule prevails is small. When the probability is sufficiently large, the firm will assume an underhedge. A risk averse firm is likely to trade, even if the AB rule prevails. As long as the CP ruling is not a sure thing, the firm will engage in underhedge. The effects of average business profits, the volatility of business profits, and risk aversion on the optimal futures position are provided. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.