| 不成熟债权国、估值效应与中国的财富流失风险 |
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| 引用本文： | 廖泽芳,詹新宇. 不成熟债权国、估值效应与中国的财富流失风险[J]. 当代经济科学, 2012, 0(1): 92-99,127 |
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| 作者姓名： | 廖泽芳 詹新宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872／广东海洋大学经管学院,广东湛江524088
2. 中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872／广西师范大学经济管理学院,广西桂林541004 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国从20世纪90年代初期开始转变为净国外资产持有者，目前是全球最大债权主体之一。但由于人民币尚未国际化，中国处于不成熟债权国地位；从债权结构看，由官方储备和债务性资产所构成的“风险资产”是中国净国外债权的主体部分；这一债权状况增加了中国的财富流失风险。基于向量误差修正模型和状态空间模型的实证检验结果表明，中国净国外债权变动中存在相当大的负估值效应，在国际金融危机期间尤为显著，人民币汇率变化是引起负估值效应的重要因素之一。因此，调整对外投资策略、稳定人民币汇率并积极推进人民币国际化是增强中国外部资产管理水平的关键。
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| 关 键 词： | 不成熟债权国 净国外资产 估值效应 |
Immature Creditor,Valuation Effects and the Risk of Chinese Wealth Outflow |
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| LIAO Ze-fang,ZHAN Xin-yu. Immature Creditor,Valuation Effects and the Risk of Chinese Wealth Outflow[J]. Modern Economic Science, 2012, 0(1): 92-99,127 |
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| Authors: | LIAO Ze-fang ZHAN Xin-yu |
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| Affiliation: | 1,3(1.School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;2.School of Economics and Management,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 524088,China;3.School of Economics and Management,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin 541004,Chin |
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| Abstract: | In the early 1990s,China had turned into the holder of Net Foreign Asset,and presently it is one of the biggest global creditor.However,China is still an immature creditor due to failure of RMB internationalization.The fact that he "risk assets" consist of the main part of Chinese net foreign credit aggravates the risk of Chinese wealth outflow.The empirical results based on VECM and state-space model show that the change of Chinese net external credit has significant negative valuation effects,and the RMB exchange rate is one of the most important causes of negative valuation effects.Thus,to adjust external investment strategies,stabilize RMB exchange rate,and promote RMB internationalization are the keys to improve the management of Chinese external assets. |
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| Keywords: | Immature Creditor Net Foreign Assets Valuation Effects |
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