Impact of selected policy and market factors upon student flows from high school to competing destinations

The impact of selected policy and market factors upon high-school leavers' decisions regarding three competing alternatives—labor-force entry, university education, non-university education—is examined using Ontario data on grade 13 students covering 1965–1978.The specific policy and market factors selected include tuition fees, student-aid, family income, graduates' wages, youth unemployment. Based upon economic-related theories of investor and consumer behaviour, predictions regarding how these factors influence students' choices are presented. Empirical tests of these predictions are then obtained by computing transition-rate elasticities estimated from a multinomial logistic model using maximum-likelihood techniques.The results suggest that both policy and market factors influence students' choices on the margin, and therefore exercise control over the flows from high-school to various competing destinations. The implications of these results are examined for policy-making and planning at the post-secondary level.