中国技术进步偏向性的测算与分析

借助不变替代弹性生产函数,利用1985—2013年中国的相关数据,测算了中国技术进步的总体偏向性以及资本增强型技术进步和劳动增强型技术进步的变化速率。结果表明:资本与劳动的替代弹性约为0.402,资本与劳动呈现互补特征,且中国的技术进步呈资本偏向性。指出:从技术进步偏向看,独立自主的发展方针、实现国家工业化的目标以及资本和技术的缺乏共同导致了目前中国的技术进步偏向;中国工业化向高技术发展仍会加强技术进步的资本偏向性,并将引发一系列问题。认为短期内中国仍需维持一定规模的传统劳动密集型产业,长期应大力发展人力资本密集的现代服务业等第三产业。

Estimation and Analysis on Factor-biased Technical Change of China

Using the CES production function and the relevant data of China from 1998 to 2013,this paper measures the annual rate of capital and labor-intensive technical progress and the bias.The results show as follows:during the sample period,the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is about 0.402,the complementary characteristics of capital to labor is very obvious;the technical change of China presents capital-biased.And it points out that independent development policy,the goal of national industrialization and the lack of capital and technology together result in the capital-biased of technical change,and industrialization advanced in China in future will still strengthen the capital-biased technology change.To solve the problems which are caused by capital-biased technical change,in the short run China still need to maintain a certain scale of traditional labor-intensive industries,but in the long run should develop human capital intensive modern service industry and other tertiary industries.