| Abstract: | Comparison-Based Prediction (CBP) is a formalized method for using analogical reasoning to generate estimates early in conceptual design and planning. Two validation studies were performed, and both showed very high predictive validity when performance data were available for the comparison systems and much lower predictive validity when the comparison system data had to be estimated. The CBP method has also been found to reduce standard deviations by 25% or more. The method appears to have a wide range of applicability for prediction tasks. |
