贸易开放、人力资本与全要素生产率的动态关系——基于非参数Malmquist指数与VAR方法

本文采用Malmquist指数对我国1981～2006年的全要素生产率变动情况进行了估算,在此基础上,通过建立VAR模型进一步分析了贸易开放、人力资本与我国全要素生产率变动之间的相互关系。结果表明:(1)贸易开放对我国全要素生产率增长具有积极的影响,但这种影响在短期内难以实现,更多的是表现为一种长期趋势过程;(2)全要素生产率增长对贸易开放将产生同步的和持久的积极影响;(3)人力资本积累除了对全要素生产率的增长有贡献之外,还能对贸易开放具有积极促进作用。

The Dynamic Relationship among Openness,Human Capital and Total Factor Productivity in China

This paper applies the Malmquist index to evaluate the TFP of China during the period of 1996～2006, and then sets up VAR model to discuss the dynamic relationship among trade openness, human capital and TFP. The results are as follows: (1)the effect of trade openness upon TFP is positive and it will be displayed in a long term but not in a short term procession; (2)and TFP has the synchronal and lasting positive influence on trade openness;(3) human capital has an important role on the TFP as well as China's foreign trade.