防务支出与经济发展：SIPRI与中国数据的比较研究

中国防务支出的增长一直是近几年国际社会热议的焦点，然而这种增长又是与中国的安全环境和经济发展相适应的。本文以1979年为界，通过对两个时期（1953—1979年和1980～2007年）中国防务支出的经验计量分析发现：1979年以前中国防务支出增长的主要原因来自外部威胁，而1979年以后中国防务支出的增长则主要源自经济的快速增长，是经济快速发展基础上的自然增长。因此，中国防务支出的增长是维护国家安全与经济增长的必然结果，从根本上说是与中国政府所宣称的和平崛起战略相一致的。

Defense Spending and Economic Development： Comparative Analysis between SIPRI and China＇s Data

The growth of defense spending which mathces the security environment and economic development in China is a focus in international society in recent years. The econometric analysis of Chinese defense spending in two periods, from 1953 to 1979 and from 1980 to 2007, finds that the growth of defense spending is mostly derived from the foreign threat before 1979, and from the rapid economic development after 1979, which is the natural growth based on the rapid economic growth. Therefore, the growth of defense spending in China is the natural requirements of national security and economic growth, which is consistent with the peacefully rising strategy claimed by Chinese government.