| 基于金融形势指数的货币政策操作风险研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾德奎.基于金融形势指数的货币政策操作风险研究[J].上海金融,2010(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾德奎 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海立信会计学院中国立信风险管理研究院,上海,201620 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金资助项目(08CJY002); 上海市教育发展基金会晨光计划项目(2007CG71); 上海市教委科技创新项目(08YS176) |
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| 摘 要： | 在货币政策操作过程中,中央银行对宏观经济形势的认识偏差,货币政策工具及政策调控时机的选择不当,以及政策信息的披露不及时等,都有可能误导公众预期和增加市场不确定性,从而引致货币政策操作风险。通过建立金融形势指数并考察其实际值与均衡值之间的离差状况,结果表明金融形势指数及其偏差可用于间接测度政策操作风险的大小,所得到的风险指数可作为宏观调控中的参考指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 金融形势指数 中央银行 货币政策 操作风险 |
Research on the Operational Risk of Monetary Policy based on Financial Condition Index |
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| Jia Dekui.Research on the Operational Risk of Monetary Policy based on Financial Condition Index[J].Shanghai Finance,2010(4). |
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| Authors: | Jia Dekui |
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| Abstract: | In practice,wrong judgment of economic situation,incorrect choice of monetary policy tools and operational opportunity,and lagged information exposure will mislead public expectation and increase uncertainty in market.Moreover,all of these factors will result in operational risk.By building Financial Condition Index(FCI),and analyzing the difference between real FCI and potential FCI to measure operational risk of monetary policy,the study shows that FCI could be an important indicator of monetary policy im... |
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| Keywords: | Financial Condition Index Central Bank Monetary Policy Operational Risk |
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