产需张弛视角下粮食政策演进逻辑及未来取向

我国粮食产需关系经历了从产不足需到产需稳定、丰年略有余的转变。从产需张弛视角来看,我国粮食政策演进可分为五个阶段,其变迁逻辑表现为:在产不足需背景下,注重数量安全和经济安全;随着产需矛盾逐渐弥合,消费升级强调"质""量"并重,注重经济与市场安全。在每个阶段,市场反应与政府决策相互交织、动态适应、共同推进。为促进未来粮食产业提质增效,应坚持粮食生产主动权、强化科技支撑、深化市场化改革、推动结构调整。

Grain Policy's Evolutionary Logic and Future Orientation from the Perspective of Production and Demand's Strain-relaxation Relationship

China’s grain production and demand relationship has undergone a transition from insufficient production to overall stable balance and surplus in bumper harvest years.From the perspective of production and demand’s strain-relaxation relationship,the evolution of China’s grain policy can be divided into five stages and its evolutionary logic is expressed as:focused on quantity and economic security when the production was insufficient;when the contradiction between production and demand gradually alleviated,consumption upgrades underlined both“quality”and“quantity”,and emphasized economic and market security.At each stage,market reactions and government decisions interweaved,adapted to each other dynamically,and promoted jointly.In order to improve the quality and efficiency of the grain industry in the future,it is recommended to insist on seizing the initiative of grain production,enhancing scientific and technological support,deepening market-oriented reforms,and promoting structural adjustment.