Beta Regimes for the Yield Curve

We propose an affine term structure model which accommodatesnonlinearities in the drift and volatility function of the short-terminterest rate. Such nonlinearities are a consequence of discretebeta-distributed regime shifts constructed on multiple thresholds.We derive iterative closed-form formula for the whole yieldcurve dynamics that can be estimated using a linearized Kalmanfilter. Fitting the model on US data, we collect empirical evidenceof its potential in estimating conditional volatility and correlationacross yields.