邮电通信业市场势力测度及对行业发展影响的实证分析

测度市场势力是监控垄断行业滥用市场势力和反垄断的前提,价格—边际成本差额(即勒纳指数)测度法是广泛认可的市场势力测度方法,但由于边际成本的不可获得性,实际上难以直接应用。本文以广受关注的邮电通信业为例解决了这一难题:基于行业数据特征,通过适当变换替代了经济学难以度量的边际成本和实物量,得到了一种能直接计算勒纳指数的方法,该方法适合于观察中长期市场势力,计量分析中明显优于使用价格—平均成本替代价格—边际成本的功效。基于测度结果,实证了市场势力、技术进步(考虑动态效率)、市场结构变化对行业发展的影响。研究发现,技术进步对行业增长有大的贡献,但市场势力产生了负效应,电信业市场结构调整没有达到业务分拆的初衷。上述研究方法和结论对政府制定垄断行业价格成本监审办法和反垄断立法有借鉴意义。

The Measurement of Market Power and Its Influence to Development of Post and Telecommunication Industry in China

This paper provides a new perspective to measure market power, mainly on price-cost margin (or lerner index). By using the data of post and telecommunication industry in China, we substitute the marginal cost and output quantity and get the relative value of price-cost margin, which is better than using price-average cost in measuring the market power and in empirical researches. In studying the influence on the industry revenue from the market power, we find that technology change(dynamically efficiency) incurs much increase of the industry revenue, but the market power gives negative impact. As to the change of market structure from telecommunication industry, the high concentration gives margin rise to the industry revenue, which is not the expectation of the government in disparting business in China telecommunications market. At last, some suggestions on the current surveillance of price and cost on monopoly industry and anti-monopoly enactment in China are put forward.