转型背景下中国经济运行的复杂性及其政策协调选择

改革开放20多年来,中国经济取得了令人嘱目的成就.然而,随着进程的加快和改革的深入,一些深层次矛盾也日益凸现.这些矛盾主要表现为:产能过剩与通货膨胀的双重压力、流动性过剩和对外贸易顺差的不断加剧以及经济增长和失业率居高不下并存.这些矛盾的存在,集中体现了转型时期中国经济运行的特殊复杂性.这些矛盾并存所产生的影响,充分显示了解决问题的紧迫性.我们应通过财政政策、货币政策、产业政策、汇率政策和外贸政策的相互配合使用,实现宏观经济的平稳发展和市场化改革的有序进行.

The Complexity of Chinese Economic Operation and Its Policy Coordination Choice in the Context of Economic Transformation

Chinese economy has made universally acknowledged achievements over the past 20 years since the reform and opening-up.However,along with the deepening of reform,some deep contradictions are also increasingly emerging now.These contradictions are mainly reflected in the following: pressures from both excess capacity and inflation,constant intensification of both excess liquidity and foreign trade surplus and coexistence of both economic progress and higher unemployment rate.These contradictions epitomize special complexity of Chinese economic operation and also show the urgency of problem-solving.By analyzing the coexistence of multiple contradictions and complexity of China's current economic operation, based on the exploration of its cause,its performance and its impact,this paper proposes the policy choices on resolving these contradictions and advocates the mutual coordination of fiscal policy,monetary policy,industrial policy,exchange rate policy and foreign trade policy to achieve macroeconomic stability and development of the market-oriented reform in an orderly manner.