外部占优下公开市场操作的货币主义算法——兼论当前人民银行公开市场操作面临的困境和对策

本文通过构造一个一般均衡的货币增长模型，讨论了存在大量外汇占款的情形下，央行票据发行回笼货币及发行美元债券的短期效应和长期效应。本文的研究发现，央行公开市场操作只有短期效应，在长期是无效的；票据发行越多，长期通货膨胀率就越高；央行美元债券的发行也只能缓解当前的外汇占款过高的困境，从长期来看，只会适得其反。因此，如何控制通货膨胀率的上升，已成为中央银行必须面对，却注定无法通过简单的公开市场操作解决的难题。只有改革现行的外汇管理制度和外贸政策，控制外汇储备的快速增长，减少大量外汇占款的出现，才能最终控制物价。

Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic in the Open Market Operation under External Dominance——Study of the Puzzle in the OMO of the People's Bank of China and the Strategy

In a general equilibrium monetary growth model,we have discussed the short-run effects and long-run effects of the central bank's note issuing and US dollar-debt issuing under the existence of much offset position for foreign-currency purchase.We find that the central bank's OMO(Open Market Operation) only have short-run effect.We show that the more notes central bank issues,the higher the long-run inflation is.Also we show that the central bank's dollar-debt issuing has no long-run effect.Therefore,how to control the rising of the inflation is the question the central bank needs to face.We believe that to reform the system of foreign currency management and the policy of foreign trade,so as to control the rapid increase of the foreign reserve is the really effective methods to control inflation.