陕西省能源消费的影响因素研究

随着经济的高速发展,陕西能源消费量剧增,而导致能源消费量变化的因素很多,如何甄别出关键的影响因素并据之进行控制,是理论和实践界关注的焦点。基于1995～2009年陕西能源消费量及表征经济发展的诸变量的统计数据,借鉴因素分解及因果关系分析技术,定量研究陕西省能源消费的影响因素,通过因素分解技术,发现经济总量、能源消费强度及产业结构的变动是引起陕西能源消费量变动的主要因素,通过因果关系分析技术,发现经济总量、能源消费强度及国民经济中第二产业产值比重是能源消费总量的格兰杰因,并据之提出地方政府在节能减排约束下保持经济增长的政策建议。

The Influence Factors of Energy Consumption in Shaanxi Province

With the economic development,energy consumption increase sharply in Shaanxi.There are many factors caused changes in energy consumption.How to identify the key factors to control,which is focus in the theory and practice.This paper is based on the Shaanxi energy consumption and the variable statistics of characterization of the economic development,reference factor decomposition and causality analysis,quantitative research the influence factor of Shaanxi province energy consumption.Through the factor decomposition technology,it finds out the economic output,the energy consumption strength and the fluctuation of industrial structure are major factor which cause energy consumption changes of Shaanxi;Through the causality analysis technique it finds out the economic output,the energy consumption strength and the value proportion of the second industry in the national economy is granger for the energy of the total consumption.According to the result it presents some policy suggestion to help local government maintain growth in energy conservation and emission reduction constraints.