A two-stage segment and prediction model for mortgage prepayment prediction and management

Predicting the risk of mortgage prepayments has been the focus of many studies over the past three decades. Most of these works have used single prediction models, such as logistic regressions and survival models, to seek the key influencing factors. From the point of view of customer relationship management (CRM), a two-stage model (i.e., the segment and prediction model) is proposed for analyzing the risk of mortgage prepayment in this research. In the first stage, random forests are used to segment mortgagors into different groups; then, a proportional hazard model is constructed to predict the prepayment time of the mortgagors in the second stage. The results indicate that the two-stage model predicts mortgage prepayment more accurately than the single-stage model (non-segmentation model).